The Office of Financial Management (OFM) recently released their November transportation revenue forecast, the first quarterly forecast since I-976 was struck down by the state’s Supreme Court in October.

The November transportation revenue forecast is altogether higher than the September forecast, largely because the impacts of I-976 were removed. The 2019-21 biennium is anticipated to be $6.2 billion, which is roughly 8% higher than the September baseline forecast. However, the November forecast is still down 4% from biennium to biennium due to lower demand caused by the pandemic.

The November forecast shows that new projections of low real personal income growth and slow employment recovery are lower than indicated by the September forecasts. Boeing’s announcement of layoffs and the additional state shutdowns are also expected to impact the forecast horizon.

The 10-year forecast horizon is roughly 12% higher than the September forecast, at $34.83 billion. The November forecast is considerably higher than the pre-COVID-19 baseline forecast in February due to I-976 revenue, lower demand from recent shutdowns, and review of the current year’s anticipated recovery for major transportation revenue sources. Most notably, the positive impacts of I-976 revenue being brought in are larger than the negative impacts of the pandemic on future biennia.